The Paddy Power Gold Cup - this coming saturday

Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends
10/10 – Had run at Cheltenham before
10/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
9/10 – Won by a UK-based trainer
8/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/10 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
7/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Carried 10-13 or less
7/10 – Had won at Cheltenham before
6/10 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
6/10 – Placed favourites
6/10 – Aged 7 years-old
4/10 – Won their last race
5/10 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
4/10 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
3/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/10 – Ridden by Timmy Murphy
1/10 - Won by an Irish-trained horse
Since 1960 we've seen just 2 Irish-trained winners
The Pipe stable have won the race 9 times (1987, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005 & 2011)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled just 6 placed horses (no winners) from his last 21 runners

I've backed huntball antepost for this race at 8/1.

It should be between Crand crus, al Ferof and huntball - but are they all primed for this or are they for later in the year? Grand crus is the obvious favourite for the race with his stable having farmed it over recent years and the all powerful trainer, Paul Nichols hasn't won in 23 attempts.

All of them fail a major stat on weight - they're all carrying too much.

For this I will look for two other big prices runners to put in my book - Nadiya de la vega who won around here recently at around 10/1 and divers who won at the 2011 festival at around 16/1.

Goodluck

Good morning Durham.

Thank you for the stats.

I love watching the jumps but dislike backing horses over the jumps because my selections try to go through the fences as opposed to over them........Which doesn't help.

Although having said that I probably will have a small flutter in this race.

Just for your information,the betting slips for the William Hill 'Jumps'competition are in their shops & here is my revised stable with Sprinter Sacre being my probable stable star:
1.HUNT BALL
2.SPRINTER SACRE
3.GRAND CRUS
4.FINNIANS RAINBOW
5.CINDERS AND ASHES
6.SIR DES CHAMPS
7.FLEMENSTAR
8.BOSTON BOB
9.SIZING EUROPE
10.SILVINIACO CONTI

The closing date for entry into the competition is 1st December & I'll wait until then before entering as I may change a selection or two depending on how they run.......I just have my doubts about Grand Crus & I'll see how he does this weekend.

Shady wrote:Good morning Durham.

Thank you for the stats.

I love watching the jumps but dislike backing horses over the jumps because my selections try to go through the fences as opposed to over them........Which doesn't help.

Although having said that I probably will have a small flutter in this race.

Just for your information,the betting slips for the William Hill 'Jumps'competition are in their shops & here is my revised stable with Sprinter Sacre being my probable stable star:
1.HUNT BALL
2.SPRINTER SACRE
3.GRAND CRUS
4.FINNIANS RAINBOW
5.CINDERS AND ASHES
6.SIR DES CHAMPS
7.FLEMENSTAR
8.BOSTON BOB
9.SIZING EUROPE
10.SILVINIACO CONTI

The closing date for entry into the competition is 1st December & I'll wait until then before entering as I may change a selection or two depending on how they run.......I just have my doubts about Grand Crus & I'll see how he does this weekend.

A lot of excellent horses there captain - good luck

Well al Ferof won nicely at 8/1.

My each way suggestions- divers was a non runner and Nadiya de la vega was third at 12/1 so profit secured!

Good afternoon Durham.

So that's two of my 10 horses up the spout already.Grand Crus & Hunt Ball totally flopped & they've blamed the going regarding the latter.

I just had this nagging feeling about Grand Crus not being up to much so I've replaced him with Sanctuaire & I may replace one of the others with Al Ferof but I've still got until the 1st Dec until I make my mind up.

Did you see Go Native take a high speed crashing fall at the last as he was challenging Hurricane Fly? His jockey had the stuffing knocked out of him but both he & the horse were okay.It's a wonder how they survive falls like that.

Shady wrote:Good afternoon Durham.

So that's two of my 10 horses up the spout already.Grand Crus & Hunt Ball totally flopped & they've blamed the going regarding the latter.

I just had this nagging feeling about Grand Crus not being up to much so I've replaced him with Sanctuaire & I may replace one of the others with Al Ferof but I've still got until the 1st Dec until I make my mind up.

Did you see Go Native take a high speed crashing fall at the last as he was challenging Hurricane Fly? His jockey had the stuffing knocked out of him but both he & the horse were okay.It's a wonder how they survive falls like that.

Afternoon commander. I did indeed see that. I had a double on back in from and hurricane fly and after the first won I closed the book by backin go native. Unbelieveable.

I have watched that horse since it won the supreme novices 3/4 years ago now when I was on at 10/1!!


Commander, I backed al Ferof for the gold cup some months ago on betfair at 95:1. Rumours are it will go the Ryanair route instead. Would you may some of the bet off it you were me or let it ride?

I also backed the giant bolster at 28/1 for the GC on betfair

Durham wrote:

Afternoon commander. I did indeed see that. I had a double on back in from and hurricane fly and after the first won I closed the book by backin go native. Unbelieveable.

I have watched that horse since it won the supreme novices 3/4 years ago now when I was on at 10/1!!


Commander, I backed al Ferof for the gold cup some months ago on betfair at 95:1. Rumours are it will go the Ryanair route instead. Would you may some of the bet off it you were me or let it ride?

I also backed the giant bolster at 28/1 for the GC on betfair

Good afternoon Durham.

I would stick with Al Ferof because he won the Paddy Power really well & is as good a bet as any for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.Having said that,I will think more about the Chelt Gold Cup winner after the King George on Boxing day.

I must admit that my head is spinning a bit after Saturdays result & that combined with the hype about horses like Sir Des Champ,Sprinter Sacre & Silviniaco Conti.....I just don't know what to do.....And what about Long Run? Surely he's not past it is he?

Unfortunately for me,I have little success with the jump season which has caused me to change tactics this season & I've decided to concentrate on the all weather races at Lingfield.I've been reading up on the A/W tracks & will try to create a niche with just the one track instead of spreading myself over every meeting & course.

I've got to try something different because I had virtually no luck over the flat season.......And what happened to Temple Meads & Native Khan? They had a couple of races each & that was that.