The Johns Smiths Grand National

The Aintree Spring Festival starts this Thursday, with 3 magnificent days of racing, and of course the highlight being the Grand National ran over the national course and over 4M 4F.

This notoriously difficult handicap can actually be reduced from the maximum of 40 runners to around 6 to take your choices from. A race that's being good to me over the years, including a 1,2,3,4 from my list of 4 in 2006 when we were at the course.

I would suggest using these statistics as a guide, not cast iron, and then make your selections.

An important note on the bookies to use. Check to see if you can get 5 places or better. Generous bookies Paddy Power are going EW 1-5...... Do not bet with awful bookies such as ladbrokes (badcrooks) who only give 4 places.

Onto the stats

21 year trends (note 1993 was a void race)

21/21 - Ran no more than 48 days ago
17/21 - Carried 10-12 OR LESS
17/21 - Ran no more than 34 days ago
16/21 - Returned a double-figure price
13/21 - Carried 10-8 OR LESS
15/21 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
12/21 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/21 - Aged 9 or 10 years-old
6/21 - Trained in Ireland (inc 4 of the last 8 years)
7/21 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/21 - Won by the favourite or joint favourite
2/21 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/21 - Ridden by Ruby Walsh
0/21 - Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts


The last horse to win with more than 11-5 was Red Rum in 1977
Since 1977, 98 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – they’ve all failed
9 of the last 11 winners were bred in Ireland
Only 1 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940

One of the first statistic is the weights. I would flex this to 11-5. Only two horses have ever won carrying this weight and one was the great red rum. This stat alone will knock the top 5 out of consideration for me, including two of the favourites Synchronised and Ballabrigs. The former won the Cheltenham Gold Cup, having a tough race one would think 4 weeks ago. The weights are against it, there aren't many gold cup / national winners and I don't like the way it jumps. It has also never tried these fences before and many previous winners had been over the fences before.......a statistic backed up by the Topham, ran on the Friday over a shorter distance but the same fences.

Ballabrigs, the galant 2011 winner has also gone up in the weights and so for me, thats out. Again, we don't see many repeat winners of this race now......although some do come back to get placed....further demonstrating horses either take to these fences or don't.

I also won't be having any horse aged under 9 or over 12 so this will also knock out about another 7/8.

Arbour Supreme, west end rocker and state of play go as they have ran too long ago for the fitness required (last 21 winners all 48 days or less - perhaps stretch this to 55).

No winner of the Haydock grand national trial has ever won the national, so scrub out Giles Cross.

We have only had one french bred winner (mon mome) so knock out le beau bai, swing bill, Viking blonde and Neptune colognes. I would be tempted for a closer look again at mon mome as it has shown it can win ths unique test.

You can use the following link to tinker with your own stats....

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-form.php

My shortlist on these stats are Killyglen, Sunnyhillboy, midnight club, rare bob and always waining.

The other two I would throw in fr consideration but don't meet all these stats are chicago grey and Cappa bleu

that's my 7 which will be narrowed down further by Saturday and good luck with your bets.

10p each way on all the horses over 66/1 is always a good idea as it is always possible all the favourites will fall and a complete outsider will win or be placed.

Durham wrote:The Aintree Spring Festival starts this Thursday, with 3 magnificent days of racing, and of course the highlight being the Grand National ran over the national course and over 4M 4F.

This notoriously difficult handicap can actually be reduced from the maximum of 40 runners to around 6 to take your choices from. A race that's being good to me over the years, including a 1,2,3,4 from my list of 4 in 2006 when we were at the course.

I would suggest using these statistics as a guide, not cast iron, and then make your selections.

An important note on the bookies to use. Check to see if you can get 5 places or better. Generous bookies Paddy Power are going EW 1-5...... Do not bet with awful bookies such as ladbrokes (badcrooks) who only give 4 places.

Onto the stats

21 year trends (note 1993 was a void race)

21/21 - Ran no more than 48 days ago
17/21 - Carried 10-12 OR LESS
17/21 - Ran no more than 34 days ago
16/21 - Returned a double-figure price
13/21 - Carried 10-8 OR LESS
15/21 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
12/21 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/21 - Aged 9 or 10 years-old
6/21 - Trained in Ireland (inc 4 of the last 8 years)
7/21 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/21 - Won by the favourite or joint favourite
2/21 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/21 - Ridden by Ruby Walsh
0/21 - Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts


The last horse to win with more than 11-5 was Red Rum in 1977
Since 1977, 98 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – they’ve all failed
9 of the last 11 winners were bred in Ireland
Only 1 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940

One of the first statistic is the weights. I would flex this to 11-5. Only two horses have ever won carrying this weight and one was the great red rum. This stat alone will knock the top 5 out of consideration for me, including two of the favourites Synchronised and Ballabrigs. The former won the Cheltenham Gold Cup, having a tough race one would think 4 weeks ago. The weights are against it, there aren't many gold cup / national winners and I don't like the way it jumps. It has also never tried these fences before and many previous winners had been over the fences before.......a statistic backed up by the Topham, ran on the Friday over a shorter distance but the same fences.

Ballabrigs, the galant 2011 winner has also gone up in the weights and so for me, thats out. Again, we don't see many repeat winners of this race now......although some do come back to get placed....further demonstrating horses either take to these fences or don't.

I also won't be having any horse aged under 9 or over 12 so this will also knock out about another 7/8.

Arbour Supreme, west end rocker and state of play go as they have ran too long ago for the fitness required (last 21 winners all 48 days or less - perhaps stretch this to 55).

No winner of the Haydock grand national trial has ever won the national, so scrub out Giles Cross.

We have only had one french bred winner (mon mome) so knock out le beau bai, swing bill, Viking blonde and Neptune colognes. I would be tempted for a closer look again at mon mome as it has shown it can win ths unique test.

You can use the following link to tinker with your own stats....

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-form.php

My shortlist on these stats are Killyglen, Sunnyhillboy, midnight club, rare bob and always waining.

The other two I would throw in fr consideration but don't meet all these stats are chicago grey and Cappa bleu

that's my 7 which will be narrowed down further by Saturday and good luck with your bets.

Good afternoon Durham.

Thanks for the good write up & valuable statistics. I'm still not sure which horse I will bet but one of the above,maybe Midnight Club will do for me.

Bet victor aka Victor Chandler are going 6 places for EW bets

Well Always Waining won the topham on Friday over the national fences!

Sunnyhillboy was just touched off into second and cappa bleu got 4th.

No winner, but a damn fine effort for 40 runners.

I said synchronised couldn't jump well enough for this race but very sad to see its demise

Hey! the horse that I backed has just finished.