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Post  Durham on Fri Oct 12, 2012 8:16 pm

Good evening Shady

Just the 35 runners to whittle down tonight for tomorrow's big one.

Here are some stats from the last 10 runnings to try and help narrow it down

Drawn in the lowest 1/3rd of the stalls is an interesting stat for a race over such distance with such a large number of runners, 4th or better LtO and carrying less than 9-1 is an excellent start to whittle down.

Short list to follow

10/10 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
9/10 – Aged 4 or older
8/10 – Had run within the last 2 months
8/10 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
8/10 – Finished 4th or better last time out
8/10 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/10 – Carried 9-1 or less
7/10 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
7/10 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
7/10 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
7/10 – Aged 5 or older
6/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
6/10 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
6/10 – The first three home returned a double-figure price
5/10 – Won by a NH trainer
5/10 – Had run at the track before

Good luck captain
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The cesarewitch Empty Re: The cesarewitch

Post  Durham on Fri Oct 12, 2012 8:27 pm

On the stats, which are a predictor but nothing more, I shall be paying closer attention to

Tominator 12/1
Countrywide flame 8/1
Beyond 20/1
O Ma lad 50/1


Just missing the majority of these stats but could be of interest include

Bertie the Bolt 28/1 and Keplers Law 22/1

Prices with Paddy Powe and 5 places
Good luck with your investments
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Post  Durham on Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:11 pm

Well a 66/1 winner beating two that I suggested with countrywide flame second and tominator third for each way bets.

Annoyingly, the horse that won met a few of the stats beig drawn 1, having won over the course and distance (being an ex winner of this race) but it looked weighted to the hilt

Hope you found it captain
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Post  Shady on Sun Oct 14, 2012 8:58 pm

@Durham wrote:Well a 66/1 winner beating two that I suggested with countrywide flame second and tominator third for each way bets.

Annoyingly, the horse that won met a few of the stats beig drawn 1, having won over the course and distance (being an ex winner of this race) but it looked weighted to the hilt

Hope you found it captain

Good evening Durham.

No not me as I decided to give all gambling a miss this weekend.But I managed to watch the sort of impressive Dawn Approach & ........I've forgotten it's name.The horse that won the race prior to Dawn Approach? So I suppose these two will be all the rage for next years classics.

Slight change of direction.What do you think of my 10 TO FOLLOW FOR NATIONAL HUNT SEASON 2012/13?

1.HUNT BALL
2.SPRINTER SACRE
3.WEIRD AL
4.FINNIANS RAINBOW
5.CINDERS AND ASHES
6.BRASSICK
7.SIR DES CHAMPS
8.FLEMENSTAR
9.BOSTON BOB
10.SIZING EUROPE

I may well use this lot in my fantasy stable for the William Hill 'The Jumps' competition which starts next month.Are you aware of that competition Durham?
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Post  Durham on Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:05 pm

@Shady wrote:

Good evening Durham.

No not me as I decided to give all gambling a miss this weekend.But I managed to watch the sort of impressive Dawn Approach & ........I've forgotten it's name.The horse that won the race prior to Dawn Approach? So I suppose these two will be all the rage for next years classics.

Slight change of direction.What do you think of my 10 TO FOLLOW FOR NATIONAL HUNT SEASON 2012/13?

1.HUNT BALL
2.SPRINTER SACRE
3.WEIRD AL
4.FINNIANS RAINBOW
5.CINDERS AND ASHES
6.BRASSICK
7.SIR DES CHAMPS
8.FLEMENSTAR
9.BOSTON BOB
10.SIZING EUROPE

I may well use this lot in my fantasy stable for the William Hill 'The Jumps' competition which starts next month.Are you aware of that competition Durham?

Good evening commander.

It looks a cracking stable

HUNT BALL - good choice - perhaps the winner of the paddy power gold cup at the open Cheltenham meeting
2.SPRINTER SACRE - best two miler for years. Champion chase winner
3.WEIRD AL - will be targeted at the national
4.FINNIANS RAINBOW - great two miler but will have to play second fiddle to sprinter sacre. Perhaps step up to 2m 4f?
5.CINDERS AND ASHES - will be in top hurdle races by winners of the supreme novices have awful record in champion hurdle
6.BRASSICK - don't know a lot about this one
7.SIR DES CHAMPS - gold cup winner
8.FLEMENSTAR - will piss it around the chases in Ireland IMO
9.BOSTON BOB - interesting to see if thy chuck it over fences!
10.SIZING EUROPE
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Post  Shady on Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:12 pm

@Durham wrote:

Good evening commander.

It looks a cracking stable

HUNT BALL - good choice - perhaps the winner of the paddy power gold cup at the open Cheltenham meeting
2.SPRINTER SACRE - best two miler for years. Champion chase winner
3.WEIRD AL - will be targeted at the national
4.FINNIANS RAINBOW - great two miler but will have to play second fiddle to sprinter sacre. Perhaps step up to 2m 4f?
5.CINDERS AND ASHES - will be in top hurdle races by winners of the supreme novices have awful record in champion hurdle
6.BRASSICK - don't know a lot about this one
7.SIR DES CHAMPS - gold cup winner
8.FLEMENSTAR - will piss it around the chases in Ireland IMO
9.BOSTON BOB - interesting to see if thy chuck it over fences!
10.SIZING EUROPE

Thanks for the comments Durham.It's probably not my definitive list as I don't think Weird Al will have too many races before the National which doesn't make him the best of prospects for the William Hill competition & I might replace him with Riverside Theatre.

I'd be very interested to see what your stable looks like as I'll accept advice from anyone.
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Post  Durham on Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:22 pm

@Shady wrote:

Thanks for the comments Durham.It's probably not my definitive list as I don't think Weird Al will have too many races before the National which doesn't make him the best of prospects for the William Hill competition & I might replace him with Riverside Theatre.

I'd be very interested to see what your stable looks like as I'll accept advice from anyone.

I shall have a look over the next few weeks commander! I love the jumps and look forward to the open Cheltenham meeting, the New Year's Day Cheltenham fixture and of course the festival in March
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Post  Shady on Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:41 pm

@Durham wrote:

I shall have a look over the next few weeks commander! I love the jumps and look forward to the open Cheltenham meeting, the New Year's Day Cheltenham fixture and of course the festival in March



And I shall keep my eyes peeled as always.pirat
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Post  Durham on Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:53 pm

Take a closer look at Al Ferof and The Giant Bolster - both outsiders for the golf cup!

With the absence of kauto star, synchronised, denman and imperial commander - I do wonder if the gold cup is Long Runs to throw away
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Post  Shady on Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:50 am

@Durham wrote:Take a closer look at Al Ferof and The Giant Bolster - both outsiders for the golf cup!

With the absence of kauto star, synchronised, denman and imperial commander - I do wonder if the gold cup is Long Runs to throw away

Good morning Durham.

Yeah funny old race was the Cheltenham Gold Cup this year.What with Kauto Star winning two races prior to the Gold Cup & then pulling up & Long Run doing nothing,I must admit to wondering if there was a bit of a 'fix'going on.

I know that Kauto's stable was reporting a training injury prior to the race.......& then he was suddenly fit to run again.......& then he flopped.It just made me wonder a bit at what was happening.

With regards to your two suggestions,I will definitely give them a look & I'm wondering if Long Run was a one season wonder & his best days have gone?.....What do you think?



PS.I may well replace Weird Al with Riverside Theatre in my stable & I was intending to follow Medermit this season but he's reported injured & is expected to miss the first half.
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Post  Durham on Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:38 am

@Shady wrote:

Good morning Durham.

Yeah funny old race was the Cheltenham Gold Cup this year.What with Kauto Star winning two races prior to the Gold Cup & then pulling up & Long Run doing nothing,I must admit to wondering if there was a bit of a 'fix'going on.

I know that Kauto's stable was reporting a training injury prior to the race.......& then he was suddenly fit to run again.......& then he flopped.It just made me wonder a bit at what was happening.

With regards to your two suggestions,I will definitely give them a look & I'm wondering if Long Run was a one season wonder & his best days have gone?.....What do you think?



PS.I may well replace Weird Al with Riverside Theatre in my stable & I was intending to follow Medermit this season but he's reported injured & is expected to miss the first half.

I share some of your views about Long run - it looks fragile.

If McCain is serious about the National, I would suspect that weird al will not run much and maybe confined to a few spins over hurdles, in order to keep its handicap mark down.

Riverside theatre is a good horse of no doubt. I'm unsure what races it may go for this year though I have to admit
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Post  Shady on Mon Oct 15, 2012 11:41 am

@Durham wrote:

I share some of your views about Long run - it looks fragile.

If McCain is serious about the National, I would suspect that weird al will not run much and maybe confined to a few spins over hurdles, in order to keep its handicap mark down.

Riverside theatre is a good horse of no doubt. I'm unsure what races it may go for this year though I have to admit

I've checked the future fixtures for Riverside Theatre in the sporting life website but he's not listed for any race yet.

And I take on board what you say about Weird Al which is no good for the William Hill competition,because I need horses that are going to run & win several races in order to boost the points required to win.Therefore he's removed from the stable & probably replaced by RS.
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Post  Flap Zappa on Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:32 pm

@Durham wrote:Take a closer look at Al Ferof and The Giant Bolster - both outsiders for the golf cup!

With the absence of kauto star, synchronised, denman and imperial commander - I do wonder if the gold cup is Long Runs to throw away
they are letting horses play golf now????????????

that might be an interesting sport a little like polo but you have to knock the ball in the hole

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