A simple diagram to explain govs latest advice

Flap Zappa Mon May 11, 2020 1:47 pm

First topic message reminder :

the latest gov advice in terms simple enough for even a remainiac to understand
It's not rocket science
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smelly-bandit Sun May 17, 2020 10:03 am

Professor Lockdown's modelling which predicted 500,000 would die from Covid-19 and inspired Government's 'Stay Home' plan is a 'mess which would get you fired in private industry' say data experts

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OBEY OBEY YOU MUST OBEY

Flap Zappa Mon May 18, 2020 12:35 am

yep fergusons computer model is not fit for purpose and he should have been sacked for that, not allowed to resign for a leg over.

alarm bells should have rung when all his previous predictions were so wrong.

fatbob5 Mon May 18, 2020 1:39 am

Smells
In the bay area of Cardiff this evening there were several Muslim women with no face covering
There was also a 6 foot tall scruffy white man with a face covering

What have you got to say about that?

fatbob5 Mon May 18, 2020 1:45 am

smelly-bandit wrote:
Professor Lockdown's modelling which predicted 500,000 would die from Covid-19 and inspired Government's 'Stay Home' plan is a 'mess which would get you fired in private industry' say data experts

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OBEY OBEY YOU MUST OBEY

Precise numbers are an irrelevance, who gives a shiney brown sh*te whether the death toll would have been 500,000 or 100,000.
It would have been carnage without the lockdown, if anything the lockdown should have started earlier.

fatbob5 Mon May 18, 2020 2:01 am

Piers Morgan is a hero

smelly-bandit Tue May 19, 2020 5:44 pm

fatbob5 wrote:
Precise numbers are an irrelevance, who gives a shiney brown sh*te whether the death toll would have been 500,000 or 100,000.
It would have been carnage without the lockdown, if anything the lockdown should have started earlier.

it kinda matters quite a bit.

if the death toll would have been no higher or lower with or without lockdown then whats the point in lockdown??

if you dont know what the death toll would have been without or how many have been saved with lockdown then you cant really say it would have been carnage.

numbers matter, in fact it was the numbers that sent us into lockdown.

fatbob5 Tue May 19, 2020 11:50 pm

smelly-bandit wrote:

it kinda matters quite a bit.

if the death toll would have been no higher or lower with or without lockdown then whats the point in lockdown??

if you dont know what the death toll would have been without or how many have been saved with lockdown then you cant really say it would have been carnage.

numbers matter, in fact it was the numbers that sent us into lockdown.

You are making a straw man of my post.
Numbers matter, but if it's a case of a large number of deaths or a huge number of deaths then the argument for lockdown still stands

fatbob5 Tue May 19, 2020 11:56 pm

The lockdown itself is a bit of a damage limitation exercise.

In retrospect, what should have happened was when it became obvious that the virus was spreading then arrivals to the UK from any country ( apart from ROI) should have been required to self isolate.

Flap Zappa Thu May 21, 2020 12:23 pm

fatbob5 wrote:The lockdown itself is a bit of a damage limitation exercise.

In retrospect, what should have happened was when it became obvious that the virus was spreading then arrivals to the UK from any country ( apart from ROI) should have been required to self isolate.

the lockdown limits exposure, it does not stop the virus. when lockdown ends inevitably there will be a rise in cases.

smelly-bandit Thu May 21, 2020 10:17 pm

fatbob5 wrote:
You are making a straw man of my post.
Numbers matter, but if it's a case of a large number of deaths or a huge number of deaths then the argument for lockdown still stands

no im not, you are.

your use of vague descriptives like "huge" and "carnage" are about as scientifically and factually useful as "how long is a piece of string" they cannot be quantified

the govts argument for the lockdown was "stay home....protect the NHS...save lives"

my question is simple : how many lives were saved by lockdown??

surely im not out of order in demanding to know that our sacrifice was not in vain??

many thousands will die BECAUSE of lockdown bob

cancelled cancer appointments, cancelled every other kind of appointment because of the mass hysteria resulting in tens of thousands preventable dead and dying over the years, dont those people and their families matter??

arent they entitled to treatment??

they have been thrown up as bullet soaks, that is fine and expected in a game of survival , BUT the number of people saved mus vastly outnumber the number sacrificed or it was all for nothing

cant you understand that??

smelly-bandit Thu May 21, 2020 10:18 pm

Flap Zappa wrote:
the lockdown limits exposure, it does not stop the virus. when lockdown ends inevitably there will be a rise in cases.

no there wont be.

the number of pure C19 cases is less than 5k.

fatbob5 Tue May 26, 2020 6:01 am

smelly-bandit wrote:
no im not, you are.

your use of vague descriptives like "huge" and "carnage" are about as scientifically and factually useful as "how long is a piece of string" they cannot be quantified

the govts argument for the lockdown was "stay home....protect the NHS...save lives"

my question is simple : how many lives were saved by lockdown??

surely im not out of order in demanding to know that our sacrifice was not in vain??

many thousands will die BECAUSE of lockdown bob

cancelled cancer appointments, cancelled every other kind of appointment because of the mass hysteria resulting in tens of thousands preventable dead and dying over the years, dont those people and their families matter??

arent they entitled to treatment??

they have been thrown up as bullet soaks, that is fine and expected in a game of survival , BUT the number of people saved mus vastly outnumber the number sacrificed or it was all for nothing

cant you understand that??

Mathematical models are at best an ' Educated Guess '
There are just so many variables that are unknown and unknowable

How infectious is a child with C19 compared with an adult.

In the event of no lockdown plenty of people would self isolate without government instruction, we have no idea how many that would be.

You don't need a mathematical models you just need to take into account what happened to the City of Wuhan and the North of Italy.

fatbob5 Tue May 26, 2020 6:19 am

Smells -

Are you aware of any countries which haven't implimented any form of lockdown whatsoever, and yet are doing just fine?

smelly-bandit Tue May 26, 2020 11:00 am

fatbob5 wrote:Smells -

Are you aware of any countries which haven't implimented any form of lockdown whatsoever, and yet are doing just fine?

sweden are rolling just fine

some states in the Us havent implemented full lockdown and are doing just fine

florida in the states has no lockdown whereas new york has one of the most strict lockdowns and NY is much much worse off than florida.

have you seen the study put out by JPmorgan??

smelly-bandit Tue May 26, 2020 11:05 am

fatbob5 wrote:
Mathematical models are at best an ' Educated Guess '
There are just so many variables that are unknown and unknowable

How infectious is a child with C19 compared with an adult.

In the event of no lockdown plenty of people would self isolate without government instruction, we have no idea how many that would be.

You don't need a mathematical models you just need to take into account what happened to the City of Wuhan and the North of Italy.

you dont need mathematical models??

erm the mathematical models are what sent us into lockdown, and if we went ito lockdown, and effectively destroyed our economy and entire way of life based on an educated guess which proved to be wrong then i guess that just fine

lets just burn the whole thing to the ground based on someones best guess

didnt we invade iraq bacause someones best guess suggested they had WDM's???

it will be fine

smelly-bandit Tue May 26, 2020 11:06 am

oh yeah bob

some states in the US have had their death toll cut by over 25% overnight

guess why???

smelly-bandit Tue May 26, 2020 11:09 am

fatbob5 wrote:Smells -

Are you aware of any countries which haven't implimented any form of lockdown whatsoever, and yet are doing just fine?

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Flap Zappa Tue May 26, 2020 12:16 pm

deaths per 100000 around the world
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fatbob5 Tue May 26, 2020 6:16 pm

Sweden

Sweden. Sweden. Sweden

That nation traditionally beloved by Right Wingers everywhere.

First thing to say
It does have a form of lockdown, but it's more voluntary than other places, no paperwork required to go for a walk.

Some people would argue that it has faired well due to its its low population density. However South Korea has done well despite it's huge density of people

What else could it be??

fatbob5 Tue May 26, 2020 6:23 pm

Perhaps it's due to a unique situation in the Western World.
Young people can actually afford to rent or buy a property by themselves.
They don't have to live with their parents and then get criticized for being snowflakes by smug middle aged RW arsewipe columnists.

With lots of single person households - makes it a lot harder for the virus to keep circulating.

fatbob5 Tue May 26, 2020 6:29 pm

I can't believe you fell into my little trap Smells

I thought you were going to choose some remote island nation

fatbob5 Tue May 26, 2020 6:37 pm

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.
.
An example of a smug middle aged RW arsewipe columnist

smelly-bandit Tue May 26, 2020 10:20 pm

fatbob5 wrote:Sweden

Sweden. Sweden. Sweden

That nation traditionally beloved by Right Wingers everywhere.

First thing to say
It does have a form of lockdown, but it's more voluntary than other places, no paperwork required to go for a walk.

Some people would argue that it has faired well due to its its low population density. However South Korea has done well despite it's huge density of people

What else could it be??

its lockdown isnt really a lockdown in comparison, i dont think any nation has zero lockdown, maybe in the middle of africa they dont have a lockdown.

we had full lockdown and our numbers are high apparently. sweden BY COMPARISON has no lockdown and they are sitting pretty

florida had by comparison no lockdown and have low numbers compared to NY which has rigid lockdown in effect and super high numbers

countries coming out of lockdown are showing zero signs of a second wave.

explain it

fatbob5 Wed May 27, 2020 3:08 am

smelly-bandit wrote:
its lockdown isnt really a lockdown in comparison, i dont think any nation has zero lockdown, maybe in the middle of africa they dont have a lockdown.

we had full lockdown and our numbers are high apparently. sweden BY COMPARISON has no lockdown and they are sitting pretty

florida had by comparison no lockdown and have low numbers compared to NY which has rigid lockdown in effect and super high numbers

countries coming out of lockdown are showing zero signs of a second wave.

explain it

Smells
Check the chart that Dean posted recently. As far as deaths per 100,000 people Sweden and the UK are quite close together.

Deaths per 100,000 people
Sweden 39.9
UK 54.2

Sweden is doing better than the UK but not brilliantly

There have been counties that have come out of a lockdown and then had to reimpose restrictions

Australia and New Zealand have come out of a lockdown and have not had a new surge in cases for a simple reason
They are not letting anyone in

fatbob5 Wed May 27, 2020 3:34 am

This Japanese Island Lifted Its Coronavirus Lockdown Too Soon and Became a Warning to the World

Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido offers a grim lesson in the next phase of the battle against COVID-19. It acted quickly and contained an early outbreak of the coronavirus with a 3-week lockdown. But, when the governor lifted restrictions, a second wave of infections hit even harder. Twenty-six days later, the island was forced back into lockdown. ..........

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A simple diagram to explain govs latest advice